Even Ivory soap isn’t 100%: Less than three weeks ago, the then-first-place Mets could be 99.8% certain they were going to the playoffs. At least that was the estimate of a simulation run daily, one million times, during the pennant race by Baseball Prospectus. The baseball-research outfit combines actual record, Pythagorean record and the strength of remaining opponents to project the rest of the season. History’s numbers also suggested that the Mets were safe: As the New York Times noted, only the 1964 Phillies had squandered such a large lead so late in the season.
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